Friday, February 24, 2017

Beware the "Death Cross!"

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I keep up with political news in the U.S. I know all about the protesters who, almost four months later, still can't believe that Trump won. I know about Trump constantly lambasting the media for reporting "fake news." I know about the wranglings in Congress over Cabinet appointments, and about Senate Republicans threatening to use the "nuclear option" to confirm Trump's Supreme Court pick. There's a lot of angst going on up there, but I'm here to tell you you're not the only show in town.

We've got our own election shenanigans here in Ecuador. And yesterday our current President, Rafael Correa, evoked a term that makes "nuclear option" sound like ordering the spiciest wings on the menu.

He threatened to use the "Death Cross."

Does that sound ominous or what? THE D-E-E-A-A-T-T-H-H CROSSSSSSS----. But then again the term brings to mind a super-special wrestling submission hold like The Texas Octopus, The Sleeper, or my favorite, The Hangman.

Let me explain what's happening. Correa and the party he created, Alianza Pais, have ruled the country without serious opposition for the last ten years. Since we had seven, count 'em, seven Presidents in the ten years before his ascension to power, his tenure in office has been tremendously stabilizing to say the least.

And he has accomplished miracles over the past decade, catapulting Ecuador from a sleepy third world country to one of Latin America's most admired. Oil is Ecuador's main source of income, and high prices for the commodity allowed him to fund massive improvements in infrastructure, education, medical care. And China stood ready to bankroll whatever else he wanted to do.

But when the price of oil plummeted it was discovered that, like a giddy lottery winner, Correa had spent it all and not maintained adequate reserves. So the country's economy has taken a hit over the past couple of years but to be fair, he's done an admirable job of steering Ecuador through some rocky straits and we already appear to be on the rebound.

The other problem is that President Correa, much like you-know-who currently occupying the Oval Office, has--how to say it??--a polarizing personality. He shoots from the hip, blasts those who disagree with him, and has run the country with a "my way or the highway" attitude.

Sound familiar?

All that was tolerable while the good times were rolling, but the downturn in the economy combined with ten years of abrasive behavior from their leader have made Ecuador's citizens open to a change of direction.

In the past Pais has maintained its stranglehold on political control largely because in Ecuador it seems anybody can run for office, so at election time there would be 7 or 8 opposing candidates with conflicting agendas and minor constituencies to scatter the vote.

Our recent election season (which ended last week and thankfully runs only about a month and a half instead of for-ever in the U.S) was no different regarding the number of candidates, but this time a conservative banker from Guayaquil, Guillermo Lasso, mounted a serious challenge to Correa's hand-picked leftist successor, Lenin Moreno. Reflecting a rightward shift that has taken place not only in the United States and the U.K. but also within South America (both Peru and Argentina have recently chosen conservative leaders), Lasso garnered enough votes to force a runoff.

And in a dramatic shift from the fractured past, all but one of the defeated candidates have pledged their support to Lasso. Since Moreno failed to crack 40% in the initial election it is widely thought that Lasso will prevail in the runoff, signalling another defeat for the "pink wave" of leftist, socialist leaders in South America.

Which brings us to the Death Cross.

In an interview yesterday Correa conceded that a Lasso victory is "very possible," but then suggested said victory could somehow possibly lead to a political crisis. Should that occur he mentioned an obscure constitutional statute called "muerte cruzada"--the dreaded Death Cross--that can be used by a president in extreme situations to dissolve the National Assembly and order new elections, including one for President.

He also dropped a hint that if the Death Cross were employed he might consider running for President again himself. Now that, my friends, would indeed create a political crisis.

So now you know the United States isn't the only country with political drama. Whereas yours seems to be never-ending with President Trump at the helm, ours will hopefully be over after the runoff election on April 2 when Ecuador, like the U.S., may perhaps be embarking on a radically different course.

How fortunate we are to be experiencing this pivotal and most interesting period in world history.

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